Getting Accurate with Risk Analysis

“It’s about your data, not big data” - Dr Andrew Pratley, University of Sydney Business School

About

Bryan Whitefield has teamed up with Dr Andrew Pratley of the University of Sydney Business School to defeat “quantifornication”. Which is Bryan Whitefield’s term for the plucking of likelihood and consequence out of thin air in a risk workshop. In particular when assessing non-financial risks where subjectivity reigns supreme.

Why does quantifornication persist? First, business leaders have become used to using the risk matrix in this way. It gets a result quickly. Second, for many the step to a more robust assessment of risk is perceived as a big one. One involving risk modelling and monte carlo simulations, big data or both.

This course is designed to help risk practitioners overcome both these obstacles. With a unique blend of Andrew’s statistical skills and Bryan as a translator for the risk profession, they will give you a “how to guide” to quantifying risk in a manageable way.

The risk matrix has been instrumental in transforming conversations about risk. However, using subjective assessments of likelihood and consequence means it is being misused. This course will help you transform the use of the risk matrix into the powerful tool it was originally designed to be. One that will help your organisation be an industry leader through A-Grade decision making.

Learning Objectives

  1. Understand how to deepen risk expertise through the use of applied statistics.
  2. Develop critical thinking and problem-solving skills through the use of statistical hypotheses.
  3. Improve influencing skills through the use of applied statistics to inform decision makers.

Format of the Course

1. Half Day Online Self-Paced Learning

Overview of statistics for non-statisticians

  • How probability works in statistics
  • How statistics help us to interpret and make decisions under uncertainty

Overview of key probability distributions and their application in risk

Overview of key statistical tests for comparing one or more variables and their application in risk

Overview of regression and its application and interpretation in risk

2. Two Half Day Online In-Person Learning Workshops

  • Clarify and create a competency in applying statistical methods to risk
  • Discover and apply the iQ3 Framework for applied statistics in risk
    • Questions of Probability – e.g. what is the likelihood?
    • Questions of Differences – e.g. how do these controls compare?
    • Questions of Relationships – e.g. what is the relationship between this cause and consequence?
  • Gain experience with a quick reference guide for applying statistical methods in the field of risk management

N.B. You will need to allow a few hours in between the two in-person half-days to complete exercises to get maximum benefit from the course.

About the Speakers

Bryan Whitefield is a management consultant operating since 2001, specialising in risk-based decision making and influencing decision makers, born from his more than twenty years of facilitating executive and board workshops. Bryan’s experience as a risk practitioner includes the design and implementation of risk management programs for more than 150 organisations across the public, private and not-for- profit sectors. Bryan is the author of DECIDE: How to Manage the Risk in Your Decision Making, and Winning Conversations: How to turn red tape into blue ribbon and was President and Chair of the RMIA from 2013 – 2015. He is licenced by the RMIA as a Certified Chief Risk Officer (CCRO) and is the designer and facilitator of their flagship Enterprise Risk Course since 2019.

Armed with a PhD in Statistics and Engineering, Dr Andrew Pratley has ten years of experience in helping companies see the value in their data. When not helping clients use data to solve their most pressing problems or serving as a subject matter expert in government and legal forums, he lectures in Business Analytics at the University of Sydney Business School and serves as a regular commentator in the media and at industry conferences on issues of data, analytics and insights.

Course Details

Find upcoming GARA Course Dates here: https://www.rmia.org.au/events

Part One: Half-day online self-paced pre-course learning (approx 2-4 hours)

Part Two: Two half-day online in-person Learning Workshops facilitated by Dr Andrew Pratley and Bryan Whitefield (4 hours for each of 2 half-day online Learning Workshops)

All PAID registrants receive an email with details on how to get started. Please allow up to 4 hours to complete Part One.

Note: This can be done in at your own pace allowing you to pick and choose when you work on the program in the lead up to the two half-day online workshops. 

Time: 2-4 hrs self-paced, then 4 hours x 2 half-day online Learning Workshops

Location: Online Self -Paced Pre-Course Work and then Two (2) half day online Zoom Meetings

CPD Points: 12

PRICE: Members $1,875.00 incl.GST

Non-Members: $2,500.00 incl.GST

Group Bookings: For Group Bookings, please contact us via email on events@rmia.org.au or by phone on 02 9095 2500.